Long-term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers on the Rural Youth: Evidence from Mexico’s Oportunidades program
Despite ample evidence about the short-term impacts of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs on education and health outcomes, little is known about their long-term effects. This paper evaluates the longer-run impacts (after nearly 10 years) of Mexico’s renowned CCT program Oportunidades, on the rural youth. In particular, it examines the effects of differential exposure to the program (of 1.5 additional years) on education and employment outcomes as well as adult life-style decisions (marriage and migration).
The results do not show strong evidence of significant long-term impacts on education (except for the elder youth). There is some of evidence that early exposure to Oportunidades is associated with a higher probability of engaging in certain types of jobs. However, there is no indication of a shift away from agricultural activities. Finally, there is some evidence suggesting that longer exposure to the program may cause women to delay marriage.
This effect could enhance women’s possibilities of participating in the labor market (through a reduction or postponement of the domestic workload.) However, finding no significant impact on earnings or probability of employment may imply that in these poor rural communities additional human capital accumulation may not suffice to improve the productive lives of these young adults in the long-run.
Fuente:
Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República
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