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Imagen de apoyo de Scarcity Price of Electricity: Lessons, new definitions and policy recommendations from the Colombian Electrical Market

Scarcity Price of Electricity: Lessons, new definitions and policy recommendations from the Colombian Electrical Market

Por: Emanuel Llanos Pérez | Fecha: 2016

The Colombian government introduced a capacity market to promote the diversification in the energy matrix, and protect users from high prices derived from dry seasonal events. Unfortunately, the flaws in the scarcity price definition- a mechanism that activates the capacity market obligation and sets a cap price for the spot market- have resulted in a market failure. Specifically, some generation plants have been forced to be unavailable because their variable costs are significantly higher than the scarcity price. This research presents an analysis and some possible alternatives fo the definition of the scarcity price in the Colombian Electricity market. An excel-based model was developed in order to analyse and compare different scarcity price definitions under three dimensions: i) Water management resources. ii) Penalty exposure of agents. iii) Change in prices for final demand. Results suggest that the proposed change in the scarcity price definition would induce to more efficient water management resources, and a reduction in the penalty exposure of agents. Complementary actions are recommended for policy makers in order to avoid some possible side effects of the implementation of a new scarcity price definition.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Scarcity Price of Electricity: Lessons, new definitions and policy recommendations from the Colombian Electrical Market

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Imagen de apoyo de Applying Simulation to the Problem of Detecting Financial Fraud

Applying Simulation to the Problem of Detecting Financial Fraud

Por: Edgar Alonso López Rojas | Fecha: 2016

This thesis introduces a financial simulation model covering two related financial domains: Mobile Payments and Retail Stores systems. The problem we address in these domains is different types of fraud. We limit ourselves to isolated cases of relatively straightforward fraud. However, in this thesis the ultimate aim is to introduce our approach towards the use of computer simulation for fraud detection and its applications in financial domains. Fraud is an important problem that impact the whole economy. Currently, there is a lack of public research into the detection of fraud. One important reason is the lack of transaction data which is often sensitive. To address this problem we present a mobile money Payment Simulator (PaySim) and Retail Store Simulator (RetSim), which allow us to generate synthetic transactional data that contains both: normal customer behaviour and fraudulent behaviour. These simulations are Multi Agent-Based Simulations (MABS) and were calibrated using real data from financial transactions. We developed agents that represent the clients and merchants in PaySim and customers and salesmen in RetSim. The normal behaviour was based on behaviour observed in data from the field, and is codified in the agents as rules of transactions and interaction between clients and merchants, or customers and salesmen. Some of these agents were intentionally designed to act fraudulently, based on observed patterns of real fraud. We introduced known signatures of fraud in our model and simulations to test and evaluate our fraud detection methods. The resulting behaviour of the agents generate a synthetic log of all transactions as a result of the simulation. This synthetic data can be used to further advance fraud detection research, without leaking sensitive information about the underlying data or breaking any non-disclose agreements. Using statistics and social network analysis (SNA) on real data we calibrated the relations between our agents and generate realistic synthetic data sets that were verified against the domain and validated statistically against the original source. We then used the simulation tools to model common fraud scenarios to ascertain exactly how effective are fraud techniques such as the simplest form of statistical threshold detection, which is perhaps the most common in use. The preliminary results show that threshold detection is effective enough at keeping fraud losses at a set level. This means that there seems to be little economic room for improved fraud detection techniques. We also implemented other applications for the simulator tools such as the set up of a triage model and the measure of cost of fraud. This showed to be an important help for managers that aim to prioritise the fraud detection and want to know how much they should invest in fraud to keep the loses below a desired limit according to different experimented and expected scenarios of fraud.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Applying Simulation to the Problem of Detecting Financial Fraud

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Imagen de apoyo de Limitation on Benefits: Comparison between the US LOB and the OECD LOB proposed under Action 6

Limitation on Benefits: Comparison between the US LOB and the OECD LOB proposed under Action 6

Por: David Felipe Domínguez Palacio | Fecha: 2016

Abstract: This contribution provides for a main comparison between the new Article X proposed by the OECD under Action 6 Final Draft and the new Article 22 of the 2016 US Model Income Tax Convention. For purposes of the above, this contribution is divided in two main parts. The first part contains a comparative analysis of the main differences resulting from a tax treaty policy perspective. The second part compares both proposals under an itemized approach. This second part addresses the specific wording differences between new Article X proposed by the OECD under Action 6 Final Draft and the new Article 22 of the US Model Income Tax Convention. At the time of drafting, some additional changes to the final version of the Article X proposed by the OECD under Action 6 could be made as consequence of the disclosure of the latest version of the US LOB on 17 February 2016. Resumen: Este artículo hace una comparaciòn entre el artìculo X propuesto por la OCDE bajo la acción 6 del reporte final contra la erosión de la base gravable y la transferencia de utilidades, y el nuevo artículo 22 del Modelo de Convenio del Impuesto sobre la Renta de los estados Unidos (modelo 2016). Para efectos delo anterior, el artículo está dividido en dos partes principales. La primera parte establece un análisis de las principales diferencias en materia de política tributaria en relación con la suscripción de tratados. La segunda parte analiza las diferencias específicas en la redacción de ambos artículos.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Limitation on Benefits: Comparison between the US LOB and the OECD LOB proposed under Action 6

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Imagen de apoyo de Current and Prospective Colombian Company Law Under the Legal Transplant Theory. S.AS. Case Study = Derecho societario colombiano desde la perspectiva de la teoría de los trasplantes legales. Con especial referencia a las S.A.S.

Current and Prospective Colombian Company Law Under the Legal Transplant Theory. S.AS. Case Study = Derecho societario colombiano desde la perspectiva de la teoría de los trasplantes legales. Con especial referencia a las S.A.S.

Por: Mariana Acuña González | Fecha: 2010

The Legal Transplant Theory proposed by A. Watson, K. Pistor and D. Berkowitz is defined as movement of a rule or a system of law from one country to another. Under this theory, the mentioned authors conclude that a legal change does not perform in an equal manner in the transplanting country as in the origin country. They argue that the adoption of it in the latter is the result of a comprehensive study of the socio-economic circumstances of the nation, while transplanting countries import the legal entity without having similar circumstances. Furthermore, under this theory, the successfulness of a legal transplant is determined by an adaptation process that the legislator, the governmental institutions and the society of the transplanting country shall undertake to prepare the scenario for the introduction. In consequence, transplanted legal changes are called to fail due to uninformed or erroneous decision made by the law-makers. Pistor and Berkowitz analyzed company regulation in various countries, among them Colombia, to support their theories. Regarding the Colombian case, they referred to the Codes of Commerce of 1853 and 1887, concluding that they were unsuccessful legal transplants from Spain and Chile, respectively.  This paper analyzes the abovementioned theory pretending to determine if the legal transplant theory was correctly applied to the Colombian case. Particular attention deserves the Sociedad por Acciones Simplificadas (S.A.S), which is a new hybrid business form adopted in Colombia as a transplant from the United States’ Limited Liability Company. In the light of this case, the document will determine whether this is called to be an unsuccessful legal transplant (as predicted by the Legal Transplant Theory). If the answer is negative, the document will determine if the S.A.S. is merely an exception of the theory or if it demonstrates the failure of such assumption.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Current and Prospective Colombian Company Law Under the Legal Transplant Theory. S.AS. Case Study = Derecho societario colombiano desde la perspectiva de la teoría de los trasplantes legales. Con especial referencia a las S.A.S.

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Imagen de apoyo de Documentary in the digital shift: a voice for a world in transformation = El documental en la era digital: una voz para un mundo en tranformación

Documentary in the digital shift: a voice for a world in transformation = El documental en la era digital: una voz para un mundo en tranformación

Por: Paula Bohórquez Camacho | Fecha: 2012

In this paper the subject of documentary in digital times is studied in three chapters that aim to explore these main different angles: 1. The angle of documentary production, with the revision of some study cases; 2. The angle of the main supporting and funding agencies – European centred- that allow creators to fund their projects and; 3. The angle of the exhibition and distribution system, that´s been transformed today by the multiple online distribution platforms. The first chapter develops an overview of the film industry and the documentary box office in the UK and then takes a look on the access to audio-visual technology and the way this influences professional creators and amateurs today. The attempt is to link the ease of use of technology with contents that make the documentaries meaningful in current times, by using some examples that relate documentary to activism, art, politics and education. The second chapter focuses on the revision of three main funding sources –MEDIA at the European level and the British Film Institute and BRITDOC at the British level- which influence the dynamics of documentary filmmaking today enabling resources to be delivered under specific frameworks and supporting the development of connections with stakeholders that become partners and allies of the documentaries with common grounds of work, particular contexts and themes. The third chapter takes a closer look on the exhibition and distribution business structure and platforms to find a universe of possibilities where the future of audio-visual narratives still to be defined, but where certainly documentary has found a way to reach audiences and stand as a powerful medium of transformation.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Documentary in the digital shift: a voice for a world in transformation = El documental en la era digital: una voz para un mundo en tranformación

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Imagen de apoyo de Credit value on the presence of credit risk: a dynamic method to coordinate customer life time value and credit risk management decisions = Valor del cliente en presencia de riesgo de crédito

Credit value on the presence of credit risk: a dynamic method to coordinate customer life time value and credit risk management decisions = Valor del cliente en presencia de riesgo de crédito

Por: Johanna Cardona Hernández | Fecha: 2013

Customer life time value (CLV) and delinquency behavior are two of the most important firm key performance indicators at the banking industry, and at any other business scenario in which customers are granted credits or loans. Coordination in decisions regarding these two important variables is essential to achieve overall firm performance. We develop a dynamic method that allows simultaneous coordination between CLV and credit risk management decisions while taking into account their time varying behavior, the observed and unobserved customer heterogeneity, and the panel data structure inherent to the CLV-credit risk context. The method, which is a combination of the extended Kalman filter for exponential family of distributions and a fixed effects model has not been illustrated and/or implemented before. Therefore, we show its validity form a theoretical and computational point of view, and how its results can be interpreted to make the desired decision coordination task using synthetic data.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Credit value on the presence of credit risk: a dynamic method to coordinate customer life time value and credit risk management decisions = Valor del cliente en presencia de riesgo de crédito

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Imagen de apoyo de Making culture: material transformations in colombian indigenous communities

Making culture: material transformations in colombian indigenous communities

Por: Emilia Atuesta Pradilla | Fecha: 2013

This dissertation explores the analytical status of “hybrid” material transformations that flourish in the indigenous communities of Vichada, Colombia, in relation to the concept of culture. It suggests that these indigenous people live in a culturally intermittent reality as a result of the appropriation of the concept of cultura imposed from the outside world. However, their approach to materiality as becoming rather than being reveals a strategy of creation and recreation of value and identity through the production of meaningful connections in a changing environment, achieved through action, and more specifically by means of the act of making.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Making culture: material transformations in colombian indigenous communities

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Imagen de apoyo de Climate change mitigation policies in developmental states: a comparative approach to China and Brazil

Climate change mitigation policies in developmental states: a comparative approach to China and Brazil

Por: Camila Muñóz Ucrós | Fecha: 2012

This dissertation aims to make an evaluation of the relationship between development and climate change mitigation policies within developmental states, specifically a comparison between China and Brazil. Developmental states are those countries focused on obtaining economic growth through developmentally driven policies. Traditionally, climate change mitigation and environmental protection have been seen as obstacles to development. However, as climate change is a global issue which requires domestic response, countries are required to act locally in order to mitigate carbon emissions into the atmosphere and reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. Developing countries, such as China and Brazil, are heavily dependent on carbon consumption to promote development and economic growth. For this reason, international pressure has been focused on these countries to reduce CO2 emissions, threatening their future development. Furthermore, it examines Brazil and China’s climate policies in light of developmental state guidance. So far what has been found is that climate policies have been relevant to the same extent as they contribute to economic growth and social development. China has envisioned the clean energy industry as a business opportunity capable of generating new jobs and exporting technology. Interests mainly focused on other issues independent to those of climate variability mitigation. Brazil, on the other hand, has relied on the promotion of biofuels as an alternative industry to the use of oil. By adopting ethanol and biodiesel as substitutes for fossil fuels, the government has been able to promote the country’s economic development and position itself as the world’s main producer. Similar to China, mitigation actions are generally implemented as long as there are other interests involved. Furthermore, when there is conflict of interests with environmental policies in both countries, they have acted as developmental states, prioritising development over policies of climate mitigation.Adrian Leftwich’s developmental state model was published in the early 1990s, to further address Chalmers Johnson’s interpretation of the Japanese economic miracle. Nonetheless, Leftwich’s characterisation of developmental states was thought to define a model exclusive to the Asia-Pacific region. This dissertation will apply Leftwich’s model, by adapting it to contemporary China and Brazil, two countries deliberately excluded from the developmental state model, but who now days represent the political context that Leftwich had in mind. In addition, the developmental state model allows a broader interpretation to the current policies implemented by the above mentioned countries, specifically on climate change related issues.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Climate change mitigation policies in developmental states: a comparative approach to China and Brazil

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Imagen de apoyo de Composition and structure of spider assemblages in layers of the mixedwood boreal forest after variable retention harvest

Composition and structure of spider assemblages in layers of the mixedwood boreal forest after variable retention harvest

Por: Jaime Hernando Pinzón Cortés | Fecha: 2011

Natural disturbances are important drivers of ecosystem change in the boreal forest and new approaches to sustainable forest management draw on natural disturbance patterns as a template for harvesting. The main premise for such approach is that species have evolved and adapted to stand-replacing natural disturbances and thus are more likely to be maintained on landscapes managed to preserve spatial patterns of natural disturbance. I used spiders – one of the most important, diverse and ubiquitous groups of terrestrial predatory invertebrates – as a model for assessing the impacts of variable retention harvesting practices on biodiversity in the mixedwood boreal forest. Spiders were collected from the Ecosystem Management Emulating Natural Disturbance (EMEND) project landbase over a period of five years from different harvest treatments and forest-types. Results for 249 species in 18 families are included in this study. Changes in composition of spider assemblages clearly followed the disturbance gradient from clear-cut to uncut treatments and these changes were linked to habitat and forest structure. Ground-dwelling assemblages were mostly affected by harvesting, whereas canopy assemblages were less influenced when stand connectivity remained. Low tree retention (i.e., 10-20%, which is the range currently applied by the forestry industry) showed some ability to mitigate adverse effects of clear-cutting; yet, higher retention levels are needed to maintain forest specialist species, especially in late successional seres (e.g., conifer dominated). A “life-boating” effect of aggregated retention was evident, and was more effective when applied in combination with dispersed retention. The application of different harvesting practices alone is unlikely to entirely emulate the effects and processes caused by major disturbances on the landscape. Thus, keeping in mind that fire is an important component in the boreal forest, this type of disturbance cannot be excluded from management if the goal is to preserve a natural range of biodiversity. In conclusion, to sustain rich and diverse spider assemblages, management of the boreal mixedwood should aim towards maintaining landscape heterogeneity. Consequently, no single practice is effective to emulate natural post-disturbance patterns and to adapt harvesting to effectively imitate the processes of a disturbance driven system, a combination of prescriptions is recommended.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Composition and structure of spider assemblages in layers of the mixedwood boreal forest after variable retention harvest

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Imagen de apoyo de Development of an Evaluation Module to support the application of Multi-Stage NMPC in Chemical Processes = Desarrollo de un módulo de evaluación para soportar la aplicación de NMPC multi-etapa en procesos químicos

Development of an Evaluation Module to support the application of Multi-Stage NMPC in Chemical Processes = Desarrollo de un módulo de evaluación para soportar la aplicación de NMPC multi-etapa en procesos químicos

Por: Felipe Andrés Torres Quintero | Fecha: 2018

In the last years Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) has received an increasing attention in academic research due to its ability to achieve optimal process operation of nonlinear processes. NMPC has been applied to several pilot plants; however major obstacles like plant model mismatch and disturbances have to be overcome in order to allow industrial applications. Multi-stage NMPC (MSNMPC) is a robust NMPC approach which achieves optimal process operation under uncertainties of the process model. A complete workflow from simulation studies to real application of MSNMPC has been developed to overcome the mentioned obstacles. However, explicit knowledge from the fields of mathematics, optimization theory, and process control is required. Therefore, efficient methods for evaluation of MSNMPC that support the transition from simulation to application in the real process are required. In this master thesis a module that applies several evaluation methods to offline simulations of MSNMPC is developed. The effectiveness of the module is shown in the case study of an industrial batch polymerization reactor.
Fuente: Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República Tipo de contenido: Tesis
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Development of an Evaluation Module to support the application of Multi-Stage NMPC in Chemical Processes = Desarrollo de un módulo de evaluación para soportar la aplicación de NMPC multi-etapa en procesos químicos

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