Developing Climate-Resilient strategies for Hydropower generation using a Risk-Based Approach. The case of the Magdalena River Basin in Colombia / Desarrollo de estrategias resilientes al clima para la generación hidroeléctrico usando un enfoque basado en riesgo. El caso de la cuenca del río Magdalena en Colombia
Colombia has an advantageous geographical position over the equator, topographical conditions and water resources availability and makes hydropower the main energy source not only to meet the national demand but also to export it to the surrounding countries, especially to Central America, positioning the country as a key provider in generation terms. Hydropower represents 10% of the national GDP and is expected to grow as a consequence of the most recent investments in new infrastructure. Moreover, its contribution is likely to increase from 70% to 80% of the national total generation with new reservoirs operation start, mostly located within the Magdalena river basin. However, those new reservoirs were based on old surveys carried out during the 70s, using the resources available at that time and hence, under a top-down planning approach. Thus, neither Climate variability, climate change nor sediment retention have been assessed involving their inherent uncertainties for planning purposes.
This research seeks to apply a novel risk-based approach (CRIDA) to give strategy directions and thus enhance hydropower generation in the Magdalena. The study case is building on an existing method by (1) providing a multi-sector element to the stress test and (2) considering variables not previously included in CRIDA case studies such as a focus on ENSO effect on rainfall and sediment retention. It looks for a better understanding of those natural drivers by defining drought in two different ways by bootstrapping the current rainfall records, comparing the results among different hydropower plant setups and consequently determining the system vulnerability. The results provide greater depth to CRIDA’s Level of Concern Analysis. Climate Change is considered the main threat as its risk is very high; hence it is required to formulate robust and flexible actions. For climate variability the strategy direction must be only robust as its uncertainty is lower than for climate change and the risk between medium and high. Finally, for sediment retention due to the low deviation necessary for further planning stages, the standard planning guidance is enough and CRIDA is not the approach it may kept be using.
Fuente:
Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República
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