Abstract: Background: Seasonal Influenza is considered to be a cyclic and ordered sequence of values, influenced by external factors that can be predicted and used to detect disease outbreaks and monitoring. In machine learning, the key challenges that limit these analyses are in model explainability and limitations associated with ecological bias. Aim: Determine the best environmental variable selection method to predict Seasonal Influenza in Norway, using an environmental medicine approach combined with machine learning techniques. Methods: This is a quasi-experimental study that compares three approaches (non-variable selection, isolate component, and multipollutant mixture), represented in five methods (univariable, bivariable, multivariable AME, multivariable PCA, multivariable LDA). Per method, the best co-variable combination will be performed, following the internal rules of each method. The best covariable combination is the result of three components: variable selection, validation data set and lag. The first one involves 13 environmental variables (temperature, relative humidity, specific humidity, air pressure, wind speed, precipitation, CO, NO, NO2, O3, PM10, PM2,5 and SO2); second one compares a test dataset compiled from the data from 2019, last year (2018) and a synthetic environmental (avg. 2013-2018) data set in the validation process; and the third one compares a combination of lag from 0 to 12. All the predictions are made using ARIMA algorithm. The evaluation is given in terms of MAE, MSE, RMSE, OR. The training set is from 2 Jun 2013 (week 22/2013) to 28 May 2018 (week 21/2018), and test set is from (week 22/2018) to (week 21/2019) with a window of predictions of 52 weeks. Results: The increment of dimensionality in the environmental variable selection introduce different noise levels and optimize the prediction. Considerations that impact the explainability, usability, ecological bias and performance will be described. Conclusion: The increment of dimensionality in the variable selection has a better impact on performance than using complex algorithms.

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the population prevalence and birth prevalence of oral clefts in Colombia from 2009 to 2017. Methods: A cross-sectional study using information from the National Administrative Records of Colombia. The data came from 2 types of administrative records (Surveillance System and the Individual Registry of Service Provision) and the oral health national survey. Population prevalence and birth prevalence by type of cleft lip and/or cleft (CL/P) ratios were calculated using Poisson distribution for count data and to assess stationary tests on time series (Dickey-Fuller) and (Phillips-Perron) was used. Results: Population prevalence in Colombia was 3.27 per 10 000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.21-3.32) and birth prevalence was 6.0 per 10 000 live births (95% CI, 5.67-6.35). Bogot´a have the highest population prevalence with CL/P. In the analysis of trends for the prevalence proportion by type of clefts in newborn babies with cleft, it was observed that the highest proportion was for babies with CLP. Cleft lip (CL) has increased from 17.4% in 2014 to 34.2% in 2017, cleft palate (CP) has decreased from 32.9% to 20.2%; and CLP changed from 49.6% to 45.5% in the same period. Conclusions: The population prevalence was 3.27 per 10 000 inhabitants. Births prevalence was 6.0 per 10 000 live births, and Orinoquia and Amazonia have higher rates than the national average. The administrative registers are adequate systems to know the behavior of oral clefts. The CL/P had a nonstationary trend during the period 2014 to 2017.

Abstract: Objective: Determine the population prevalence and trends of cleft lip and / or palate (CL/P) by department for Colombia in the period 2009 - 2015. Methods: Prevalence study based on Individual Registry of Health Services in general population from 2009 to 2015. All people diagnosed with CL/P were included for all ages, type of diagnosis and any type of health services in the mentioned period. The prevalence rate was calculated by period and point for each year, for each department and according to the type of cleft. Stationarity on time series was evaluated using (Dickey-Fuller) and (Phillips-Perron), the trends and prevalence ratios were calculated using Poisson regression. Results: 15,225 people with CL/P were identified, where 53.3% were men. The national period prevalence of CL/P is 3.37 per 10 000 (IC95%: 3.3-3.4) with upward trend (PR = 1.34 95% CI: 1.0 - 1.8 p = 0.05) and non-stationary behavior. The national period prevalence of CL is 0.93 per 10 000, CP 1.17 per 10 000 and CLP 1.26 per 10 000, where CLP is sub classify into CLPu (0.83 per 10 000), and CLPb (0.43 per 10 000). At the departmental level, the highest CL/P prevalence is Guaviare (11.2 95% CI: 8.6 – 14.2), followed by Guainía (8.4 95% CI:5.4 – 12.2) and the lowest Quindío (0.49 95% CI: 0.3 – 0.7) Conclusions: In Colombia, the national period prevalence of CL/P is 3.37 per 10 000 with upward trend at national level indicates an increase on prevalence from 2009 to 2015.

Abstract: Seasonal influenza is an infectious disease of multi-causal etiology and a major cause of mortality worldwide that has been associated with environmental factors. In the attempt to model and predict future outbreaks of seasonal influenza with multiple environmental factors, we face the challenge of increased dimensionality that makes the models more complex and unstable. In this paper, we propose a nowcasting and forecasting framework that compares the theoretical approaches of Single Environmental Factor and Multiple Environmental Factors. We introduce seven solutions to minimize the weaknesses associated with the increased dimensionality when predicting seasonal influenza activity levels using multiple environmental factors as external proxies. Our work provides evidence that using dimensionality reduction techniques as a strategy to combine multiple datasets improves seasonal influenza forecasting without the penalization of increased dimensionality.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of liver cancer and its incidence is rising. The introduction of new systemic therapies, including immune-based therapies and biomarker driven therapies, has improved survival in patients at advanced stages. However, overall survival is still poor, and recent advances in understanding of the molecular alterations of HCC have not translated yet into novel biomarkers. Over the past decade, major advancements in 'omic' technologies have enabled monitoring of a variety of molecular and organismal processes. A comprehensive analysis of single gene mutations in HCC might lead to detect biomarkers that improve our prognosis and treatment. We developed a bioinformatics pipeline capable of analyzing genomic data to identify key regulatory molecular changes in HCC development and their influence in patient’s prognosis. By looking at genetically determined subgroups of HCC in the TCGA Liver Cancer dataset, we managed to obtain 15 genes frequently affected by oncogenic mutations and analyzed their influence in patient’s survival, identifying CSMD1 as a prognostic biomarker candidate. Nevertheless, the validation in the ICGC HCC database showed that it did not have any statistically significant influence in overall survival. This work reveals that the most frequent single gene mutations are not enough for significant survival changes in HCC and that we should focus our efforts in integrative analysis of clinical information and multi-omics to maximize our clinical benefits in this devastating disease. Resumen: El carcinoma hepatocelular (CHC) es el tipo más común de cáncer de hígado y su incidencia está aumentando. La introducción de nuevas terapias sistémicas, incluidas las inmunoterapias y las terapias impulsadas por biomarcadores, ha mejorado la supervivencia de los pacientes en etapas avanzadas. Sin embargo, la supervivencia general sigue siendo escasa y los avances recientes en la comprensión de las alteraciones moleculares del CHC aún no se han traducido en nuevos biomarcadores. Durante la última década, los principales avances en las tecnologías "ómicas" han permitido el seguimiento de una variedad de procesos moleculares y orgánicos. Un análisis completo de las mutaciones de un solo gen en el CHC podría conducir a detectar biomarcadores que mejoren nuestro pronóstico y tratamiento. Desarrollamos un protocolo de bioinformática capaz de analizar datos genómicos para identificar cambios moleculares reguladores clave en el desarrollo del CHC y su influencia en el pronóstico del paciente. Al observar subgrupos genéticamente determinados de CHC en la base de datos TCGA-Liver Cancer, logramos obtener 15 genes frecuentemente afectados por mutaciones oncogénicas y analizamos su influencia en la supervivencia del paciente, identificando CSMD1 como un candidato a biomarcador pronóstico. Sin embargo, la validación en la base de datos ICGC-CHC mostró que no tuvo ninguna influencia estadísticamente significativa en la supervivencia global. Este trabajo revela que las mutaciones de un solo gen más frecuentes no son suficientes para cambios significativos en la supervivencia del CHC y que debemos centrar nuestros esfuerzos en el análisis integrador de la información clínica y la multi-ómica para maximizar nuestros beneficios clínicos en esta devastadora enfermedad.

Abstract: One of the great challenges for students of any discipline is to be able to put into practice the knowledge learned in theory. Public health does not escape this challenge. Research Methods for Public Health is a book that seeks to help students understand in a simple way how to enter into the practice of public health research. This book stands out for its easy reading, but especially because it emphasizes the existence of quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as the combination of both methods. On the other hand, the authors show between the lines, and sometimes more clearly, the importance of teamwork in research groups, a key element to avoid errors, validate procedures or instruments and increase the reliability of the results, as well as the importance of criteria of validity, reliability, precision, relevance, transparency and credibility, among others. Resumen: Uno de los grandes retos para los estudiantes de cualquier disciplina es poder poner en práctica los conocimientos aprendidos en la teoría. La salud pública no se escapa de este desafío. Research Methods for Public Health es un libro que busca ayudar a comprender de manera sencilla cómo introducirse en la práctica de la investigación en salud pública. Este libro se destaca por su fácil lectura, pero especialmente porque pone el énfasis en la existencia de los métodos cuantitativos y cualitativos, así como en la combinación de ambos métodos. Por otro lado, los autores dejan ver entrelíneas, y a veces más claramente, la importancia del trabajo en equipo en los grupos de investigación, elemento clave para evitar errores, validar procedimientos o instrumentos y aumentar la confiabilidad de los resultados, así como la importancia de criterios de validez, confiabilidad, precisión, relevancia, transparencia y credibilidad, entre otros.

Resumen: ¿Se puede lograr un buen libro académico cuando se percibe que la rabia es lo que ha llevado al autor a escribirlo? Esta es una pregunta que surge al leer Repensar la salud global. Marcos de poder,* pues la autora habla explícitamente de cómo comenzó su rabia hacia la inequidad (p. 72) y cómo de alguna manera todavía sigue teniendo esta rabia (p. 93). La respuesta a dicha pregunta la podrá tener el lector al finalizar el libro, des- pués de leer diferentes tipos de relatos. La autora menciona, entre otros casos, la epidemia del cólera en Haití, durante la cual se vivió una situación muy difícil, como se puede leer a continuación: “Se hicieron agujeros en la base de los colcho- nes para que el signo revelador del cólera, la diarrea constante e implacable, pudiera manejarse más fácilmente sin tener que trasladar a los pacientes” (p. 79). Lo cierto es que la doctora Rochelle Burgess dice que escribió este libro con la esperanza de llevar al lector en un viaje para iluminar la complejidad de cómo funcionan las di- námicas de poder en el ámbito de la salud global desde la posición de una psicóloga de salud comunitaria, en cuyo ejercicio profesional encontró su insatisfacción con la salud global. Abstract: Can a good academic book be achieved when it is perceived that anger is what drove the author to write it? This is a question that arises when reading Rethinking Global Health. Frames of Power,* as the author explicitly talks about how she began her rage at inequity (p. 72) and how in some ways she still has this rage (p. 93). The answer to this question can be found at the end of the book, after reading different types of stories. The author mentions, among other cases, the cholera epidemic in Haiti, during which a very difficult situation was experienced, as can be read as follows: "Holes were drilled in the base of the colchages so that the telltale sign of cholera, the constant and relentless diarrhea, could be handled more easily without having to move the patients" (p. 79). The truth is that Dr. Rochelle Burgess says she wrote this book in the hope of taking the reader on a journey to illuminate the complexity of how power dynamics work in global health from the position of a community health psychologist, in whose practice she encountered her dissatisfaction with global health.

Abstract: Changes in demographics and epidemiology have made non-communicable diseases (NCDs) a global and highly relevant problem. Globally, oral diseases cause serious health and economic burdens, leading to a substantial reduction in quality of life for those affected. Oral diseases and other NCDs share modifiable risk factors, including tobacco use, harmful use of alcohol and unhealthy diets, as well as the same socioeconomic determinants. The oral cavity provides valuable insights into overall health, as systemic diseases such as diabetes, HIV/AIDS, and autoimmune disorders often presents oral manifestations. However, in prison settings, where access to healthcare is limited and challenging as a human right, individuals experience exacerbated oral health outcomes and complications. Oral health status serves as a mirror of overall health, highlighting the interconnectedness between oral health and general well-being. The involvement of health authorities in prison settings plays a significant role in promoting and maintaining optimal oral health, which in turn has a profound impact on the physical and mental health of PLP. The World Health Organization's Oral Health Report of 2022 emphasizes the importance of addressing oral health inequalities as a crucial step in achieving fairness and implementing preventive interventions. Therefore, coherent and comprehensive regulation and legislation in oral health are needed to achieve social justice, ethical public health policies and professional practice. This study used a combination of methods with a focus on qualitative research. The first phase involved following the guidelines set out in “Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analyses (PRISMA)” to conduct a comprehensive and systematic scoping review addressing the primary and secondary objectives of the study. The third objective was covered by semi structured interviews involving purposive sampling, identified by three target groups: dentist personnel working in prisons; prison health experts; harm reduction policymakers, to gain insight from global prison health experts on potential areas of improvement for oral health in prison. In the first phase of this study, scientific articles published between January and August 2022 were gathered and reviewed. Subsequently, in 2023, a series of interviews were conducted involving fifteen participants. Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the Ethics Committee of the Ruprecht Karls Faculty of Medicine in Heidelberg (S 288/2023). The data collection instrument was carefully designed to accommodate the specific profiles of the participants, all owing for necessary adjustments to ensure the relevance and effectiveness of the study. Online in depth semi structured interviews were conducted via Zoom with relevant health prison experts. The combination of inductive and deductive approaches was used to design the study, collect and analyze data, and answer the research questions. The major findings of this study shed light on the persistent neglection of oral health into the health systems across different settings. Challenges and limitations in addressing oral health in prison, remains with a focus on the provision of emergency treatments and dental mutilations as services provided instead of conservatives approaches. Comprehensive and specialized dental care is necessary to avoid burdens on the health system, mostly from preventable oral disorders. Oral care and basic dental hygiene are still on the list of necessities in prison settings, as well as lack of resources, committed staff, and infrastructure to support the delivery of comprehensive dental services in prisons. In order to increase access to quality dental care, address oral health disparities, and promote the overall well-being of PLP, policy reforms, capacity building, and collaboration are necessary.

Abstract: Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are at an increased risk of developing chronic neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease (AD), an association thought to be related to several factors, including altered production and clearance of apolipoprotein E (ApoE) and amyloid-? (A?). We previously reported decreased CSF expression of proteins related to cholesterol metabolism in patients with ABI, which may potentially lead to reduced neuro-steroid production, increased risk of neurodegenerative disease, and worse functional outcomes. In this post hoc analysis, ApoE (ApoEelisa), amyloid beta 1–40 (A?1–40), and amyloid beta 1–42 (A?1–42) concentrations were measured in vCSF taken from an external ventricular drain on Days 1–5 after non-traumatic ABI. The vCSF concentrations of ApoE were measured using a commercial enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test . The vCSF concentrations of A?1–40 and A?1–42 were also measured using a commercial ELISA test, with 50 ?l/patient (robotic pipette) per sample in duplicate using A?1–40 and A?1–42 monoclonal antibody, respectively. Day 1 ApoEelisa concentrations were significantly lower (p < 0.01) in patients with non-traumatic ABI than in control patients. vCSF A?1–40 (p < 0.001) and A?1–42 (p < 0.001) concentrations were also lower in the ABI patients. Day 1–5 ApoEswath protein expressions were significantly lower in patients with nontraumatic ABI than in controls (p < 0.0001). APLP1 values, but not those of APP or APLP2, were also significantly lower in non-traumatic ABI (p < 0.0001) throughout the 5-day period. These findings suggest that specific precursors of neurotoxic A? may be expressed in the early phase of nontraumatic ABI, such as that caused by vascular injury after ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes. Resumen: Los pacientes con lesión cerebral traumática (LCA traumática) tienen un mayor riesgo de desarrollar enfermedades neurodegenerativas crónicas, incluida la enfermedad de Alzheimer (EA), una asociación que se cree que está relacionada con varios factores, incluida la producción alterada y la eliminación de la apolipoproteína E (ApoE). y ?-amiloide (A?). Anteriormente informamos una disminución de la expresión en el LCR de proteínas relacionadas con el metabolismo del colesterol en pacientes con LCA, lo que potencialmente puede conducir a una reducción de la producción de neuroesteroides, un mayor riesgo de enfermedades neurodegenerativas y peores resultados funcionales. En este análisis post hoc, se midieron las concentraciones de ApoE (ApoEelisa), beta amiloide 1–40 (A?1–40) y beta amiloide 1–42 (A?1–42) en vCSF extraído de un drenaje ventricular externo en los días 1 a 5 después LCA no traumática. Las concentraciones de ApoE en vCSF se midieron utilizando una prueba comercial de ensayo inmunoabsorbente ligado a enzimas (ELISA). Las concentraciones de vCSF de A?1–40 y A?1–42 también se midieron utilizando una prueba ELISA comercial, con 50 ?l/paciente (pipeta robótica) por muestra por duplicado utilizando los anticuerpos monoclonales A?1–40 y A?1–42, respectivamente. Las concentraciones de ApoEelisa en el día 1 fueron significativamente más bajas (p <0,01) en pacientes con LCA no traumática que en pacientes de control. Las concentraciones de vCSF A?1–40 (p <0,001) y A?1–42 (p <0,001) también fueron más bajas en los pacientes con LCA. Las expresiones de la proteína ApoEswath de los días 1 a 5 fueron significativamente menores en pacientes con LCA no traumática que en los controles (p <0,0001). Los valores de APLP1, pero no los de APP o APLP2, también fueron significativamente más bajos en la LCA no traumática (p <0,0001) durante el período de 5 días. Estos hallazgos sugieren que precursores específicos de A? neurotóxico pueden expresarse en la fase temprana de una LCA no traumática, como la causada por una lesión vascular después de un accidente cerebrovascular isquémico o hemorrágico.

Abstract: Quantitative analysis of ventricular cerebrospinal fluid (vCSF) proteins following acute brain injury (ABI) may help identify pathophysiological pathways and potential biomarkers that can predict unfavorable outcome. In this prospective proteomic analysis study, consecutive patients with severe ABI expected to require intraventricular catheterization for intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring for at least 5 days and patients without ABI admitted for elective clipping of an unruptured cerebral aneurysm were included. vCSF samples were collected within the first 24 h after ABI and ventriculostomy insertion and then every 24 h for 5 days. Data-independent acquisition and sequential window acquisition of all theoretical spectra (SWATH) mass spectrometry were used to compare differences in protein expression in patients with ABI and patients without ABI and in patients with traumatic and nontraumatic ABI. We included 50 patients with ABI (SAH n = 23, TBI n = 15, intracranial hemorrhage n = 6, ischemic stroke n = 3, others n = 3) and 12 patients without ABI. There were significant differences in the expression of 255 proteins between patients with and without ABI (p < 0.01). There were intraday and interday differences in expression of seven proteins related to increased inflammation, apoptosis, oxidative stress, and cellular response to hypoxia and injury. Among these, glial fibrillary acidic protein expression was higher in patients with ABI with severe intracranial hypertension (ICH) (ICP ? 30 mm Hg) or death compared to those without (log 2 fold change: +2.4; p < 0.001), suggesting extensive primary astroglial injury or death. Dysregulated vCSF protein expression after ABI may be associated with an increased risk of severe ICH and death. Resumen: El análisis cuantitativo de las proteínas en el líquido cefalorraquídeo ventricular (vLCR) después de una lesión cerebral aguda (LCA) puede ayudar a identificar vías fisiopatológicas y posibles biomarcadores que pueden predecir un resultado desfavorable. En este estudio prospectivo de análisis proteómico, se incluyeron pacientes consecutivos con LCA grave que se esperaba que necesitaran cateterismo intraventricular cerebral para monitorizar la presión intracraneal (PIC) durante al menos 5 días y pacientes sin LCA ingresados para clipaje electivo de un aneurisma cerebral no roto. Las muestras de vCSF se recolectaron dentro de las primeras 24 h después de la inserción del ITB y la ventriculostomía y luego cada 24 h durante 5 días. Se utilizó la espectrometría de masas de adquisición independiente de datos y adquisición de ventana secuencial de todos los espectros teóricos (SWATH) para comparar las diferencias en la expresión de proteínas en pacientes con LCA y pacientes sin LCA y en pacientes con LCA traumática y no traumática. Se incluyeron 50 pacientes con LCA (HSA n = 23, TCE n = 15, hemorragia intracraneal n = 6, ictus isquémico n = 3, otros n = 3) y 12 pacientes sin LCA. Hubo diferencias significativas en la expresión de 255 proteínas entre pacientes con y sin LCA (p <0,01). Hubo diferencias intradía e interdía en la expresión de siete proteínas relacionadas con el aumento de la inflamación, la apoptosis, el estrés oxidativo y la respuesta celular a la hipoxia y las lesiones. Entre estos, la expresión de la proteína ácida fibrilar glial fue mayor en pacientes con LCA con hipertensión intracraneal (HIC) grave (PIC ? 30 mm Hg) o muerte en comparación con aquellos sin (cambio log 2 veces: + 2,4; p < 0,001), lo que sugiere una extensa Lesión astroglial primaria. La expresión desregulada de las proteínas en el vLCR después de una LCA puede estar asociada con un mayor riesgo de HIC grave y muerte.