Carta mediante la cual Camilo Torres se dirige al entonces vicepresidente de Colombia, Miguel Antonio Caro Tobar, con el fin de advertir sobre varias medidas que Torres considera fundamentales para solucionar la crisis económica y fiscal por la que atravesó la nación a fines del siglo XIX. Dentro de las sugerencias de Torres, se incluyen el aumento del medio circulante del papel moneda, la creación de un nuevo empréstito que sirv a los bancos privados, la reglamentación y vigilancia de la organización bancaria del país, el equilibro de importaciones y exportaciones adelantadas por la nación y el aseguramiento del valor de los billetes circulantes, entre otros.

This thesis explores the effect of disclosure on risk management policies. Following recent theory on risk management, with market imperfections, risk management creates value by reducing the volatility of the cash flows. Those risk policies are conditioned by actual disclosure rules that reduce information asymmetry between managers and shareholders, providing a comprehensive view of the firm. However, disclosure gives different accounting choices, hence affecting the decision-making process of managers. The purpose of this thesis is to establish if managers adapt their actual risk policy to disclosure rules. Specifically, we discuss how managers make decisions regarding exchange rate risk in forecasted transactions. In addition, we discuss how hedging affects valuation by using an investor perspective. This is done through the analysis of the automotive industry in Sweden, Germany and France and the considerations of analysts and auditors. We found that risk management policies are affected by accounting rules and that analysts are aware of those effects but have problems to measure them. However, not enough evidence was found to prove that managers try to avoid the volatility the fair value option brings when hedging a forecasted flow.

Exports concentration in a reduced number of economic sectors has been always a concern for trade policy makers, mostly in developing countries. According to the economic theory and some recent empirical evidence, market access in international trade is improved through free trade agreements and preferential tariff rate programs which could affect positively export diversification. Following a similar approach used by Debaere and Mostashari (2005) and Volpe and Gómez (2007), this paper estimates the effects on Colombia’s export diversification induced by the lower tariffs offered by Mexico and the broader preference margin vis-à-vis third countries in the Mexican market derived from the G3 Free Trade Agreement (FTA). For this purpose, dynamic Probit and dynamic Poisson models are estimated using an unbalanced panel data available from 1995 –year when the G3 FTA entry into force– to 2010, the latest year available. Moreover, this paper also attempts to estimate the effects of Venezuela’s withdrawal from G3 in 2006 and the effects of the bilateral crisis between Colombia and Venezuela in the second half of 2000s. In general, results show that lower tariffs faced by Colombian products in Mexico are associated with higher export diversification but this impact is sensitive to the economic cycle and a negative impact on diversification can arise depending on the specification of the model. Also, broader preferential margins in Mexico induce higher export diversification for Colombian products. However, there exists a strong dependence of export diversification in Colombia on the initial conditions and the past of the export portfolio offered to Mexico. On the other hand, Venezuela’s withdrawal from G3 FTA in 2006 had no effect on export diversification from Colombia to Mexico meanwhile the bilateral crisis showed –in some specifications– positive effects on the export diversification to Mexico, the latter revealing a trade deviation pattern. Macroeconomic control variables –including the real exchange rate– showed to be irrelevant to the model.

This thesis comprises three essays on asset pricing on the stock and options markets. The …first essay …finds a positive relation between the slope of the volatility term structure and subsequent option returns. The second essay …finds a negative relation between realized skewness, extracted from high-frequency data, and stock returns. The third essay finds a negative relation between price jumps of intraday data and future stock returns.

Después de más de 20 años de éxito del sistema indexado de financiamiento de vivienda (UPAC) a través del cual la vivienda se convirtió en un sector líder como parte de una amplia estrategia de desarrollo diseñada para acelerar la urbanización e industrialización colombiana, el sistema sufrió modificaciones estructurales en donde pasó de estar únicamente atado a la inflación para pasar a indexarse a la tasa de interés también. Esto generó una fuerte alza en el costo real del financiamiento, desencadenando una crisis de pagos por parte de una alta proporción de usuarios que terminaron perdiendo su vivienda y desatando una crisis social. Esta situación paralizó el sector de la construcción, retrocediendo fuertemente en el proceso de crecimiento a través de este modelo. El gobierno intentó reparar el modelo volviendo al esquema original (atado únicamente a la inflación) y renovando el nombre del sistema con la iniciativa UVR. No obstante, este sistema no ha podido recuperar la capacidad motora que tuvo en sus comienzos.

Abstract: Pairs trading is a well-known and widely used strategy in the financial industry. Many academic papers have been published regarding to this topic, mainly applied over samples in the stock markets. This project attempted to analyze the application of a simple pairs trading rule in the Foreign Exchange Market, until now poorly approached. Therefore, our aim with this work was to address, through an empirical analysis, a market-neutral strategy that takes into account pairs of exchange rates that “move together” and exploits their plausible inefficiencies. Based on a co-integration model, we designed and tested the strategy, which surprisingly yielded valuable evidence of its potential scope. The sample employed for the development of this project included 9 of the most liquid currencies in the market, from 2010 until 2014, so it was possible to open and close positions at the right moment without delays. Resumen: El trading de pares es una estrategia bien conocida y ampliamente usada en la industria financiera. Muchos documentos académicos han sido publicados en relación a este tema, principalmente aplicado sobre muestras en el Mercado Accionario. Este proyecto buscó analizar la aplicación de una estrategia de trading de pares simple en el mercado de divisas, hasta ahora escasamente abordado. Por lo tanto, nuestra intención con este trabajo consistió en estudiar, a través de un análisis empírico, una estrategia de mercado neutral que toma pares de divisas que "se mueven juntas" y explota sus in-eficiencias plausibles. Basado en un modelo de cointegracion, se diseñó y probó la estrategia, que de manera sorprendente retornó evidencia valiosa de su alcance potencial. La muestra empleada para el desarrollo del proyecto incluyó nueve de las divisas más liquidas en el mercado, desde 2010 a 2014, para que fuese posible abrir y cerrar posiciones en el momento justo sin retrasos.

Using the case study methodology, an analysis of three cases on banking acquisitions in Colombia is performed. The deals are classified as successful or unsuccessful according to some financial ratios that measure profitability and efficiency. Then, the characteristics of these transactions are studied thoroughly to determine the attributes that lead to different outcomes. The research finds support for several attributes regarded as influential in the outcome of acquisitions. In particular, experience in previous acquisitions or organizational change, and focus on core business, are found to be the most relevant. Furthermore, the relative profitability between bidder and target is proposed as a factor that could influence the outcome of an acquisition.

The financial industry operates in a rapidly changing environment, where participants need to adapt to the preferences and requirements of customers, the entrance of new competitors and regulation. Along history, Investment Banks have played an important role in the financial industry providing products and services that promote economic growth and providing structure to the market. They are sophisticated and powerful organizations, that before 2007 were believe to be too big to fail. However, the financial crisis exposed their failures and how vulnerable their interconnected structure is, making evident the latent risk that they represent for the economy. Since the crisis regulation become strict and regulators strengthen the vigilance over the activities Investment Banks undertake, undoubtedly creating a new scenario. Simultaneously in the UK a credit crunch occurs, and the access to funds sources for SMEs and individuals suffer a drastic contraction. In that complex environment the Alternative Finance Market emerged, proposing a solution for that segment of the market that was claiming for an efficient, flexible and easy source of fundraising. P2P Lending and Crowdfunding are the most known and relevant models from the Alternative Finance sector, and they had played a significant role, exhibiting a rapid growth, since they began to operate in 2005. After analysing both, the Investment Banking and the Alternative Finance Industry, and performing some empirical analysis, some conclusions were reached. First of all, from the Investment Banking side, they must recognize that more than a threat the Alternative Lending model represent a new source of opportunities. However, Investment Banks will face some challenges in the next years, and they need to work to defend their position in the industry. The research identified four main areas in which Investment Banks should work in the short term. Firstly, they should focus on restoring investors’ and clients’ confidence, which was weakened after the financial crisis. As it was mentioned in the paper, reputation plays a significant role in the financial industry and profits are highly related with it. If Investment Banks do not recover their status and reputation they might lose market-share. On the second place, they must overcome the phase of adjusting to the new regulatory requirements. After meeting the requirements, they can focus their strategy to compete in the current environment and face the challenges that P2P Lending and Crowdfunding are proposing. Thirdly, for defending their position IBs can work to reinforce and innovate in other of their business, taking advantage of their diversified structure. Finally, regarding the Alternative Finance Market, Investment Banks can support the platforms with the complex infrastructure that they already have. Also, they can work towards financial integration and exploit the expertise and reputation they possess. In respect to the Alternative Finance Market, this paper guided us towards some conclusions about some aspects regarding the current situation and the short-term perspectives for the industry. First of all, it was observed that P2P Lending and Crowdfunding have experienced exponential growth that began from the year the first platforms started to operate. Data from the Liberum AltFi Volume Index UK and the volume of origination showed in Zopa´s and RateSetter´s loan books confirmed the trend. The fact that the industry was created to fulfil the demand and abolish the limitations to which SMEs, start-ups and individuals were subject, gave them an advantage from the beginning in the lending business sphere. In addition, they brought to the market a new investment opportunity and opened the access to small investors, who were seeking attractive investment opportunities. Furthermore, the Alternative Finance sector incorporates some elements that make of it an attractive and innovative lending model. Important factors such as transparency, differential pricing, disintermediation, flexibility and that it is built on the online concept give it competitive advantages over the traditional fundraising sources. In the second place, it can be concluded that this alternative lending model may be possibly entering a phase of stabilization. The monthly volume of origination seems to be slowing its growing pace, even though it continues growing, as the Liberum AltFi Volume Index UK indicates. By stabilization, it means grow at a rate of no more than two digits. The next conclusion at which this projects led us is that it seems that everyone has a positive and optimistic perspective about the future of this emerging industry. From academics to practitioners, they are expecting that in the short-term the knowledge and the awareness of the industry increase, causing that more borrowers and investors approach to the business. Moreover, the interest of the government and regulatory entities in the market will improve the existing regulation, creating high standards, what will be perceived by borrowers and lender as a safety signal, inviting them to select these alternatives over the traditional ones. Other factors that are consider as a potential sources of growing are the partnerships that P2P and Crowdfunding platforms are establishing, the new products derived from P2P loans, the creation of a secondary market, the process of securitization and the big flows coming from institutional investors. There is much work that P2P Lending and Crowdfunding platforms need to do in the next years. It is vital that they work to meet the requirements that regulation imposes and achieve the challenges that borrowers, investors and competitors propose. If so, they can secure their position in the financial market. The next years are crucial, they will define the way in which lending model will be structured from now on. The Alternative Finance Market represents a significant opportunity for borrowers, investors, as well for Investment Banks.They need to find a way that ensures that they are going to be active players of this emerging concept and defend their position. Finally, P2P Lending and Crowdfunding must continue working on developing the business model, walking towards establishing their reputation, imposing high standards and offering a differentiated service.

Los factores de producción en los mercados globales, más que los factores tangibles que existían en la revolución industrial como capital, trabajo y materias primas, han empezado a volverse intangibles como el conocimiento, la información y la cultura. El nuevo papel jugado por el conocimiento está generando una transformación en la escala y en el proceso productivo nacional, de forma que las utilidades dependen cada vez en más de la producción, distribución y uso del conocimiento y la información. Uno de los sectores que ha jugado un papel preponderante en este nuevo escenario mundial ha sido la biotecnología. Debido a la importancia y de los avances que ha tenido la biotecnología en áreas como el mercado farmacéutico, el agroquímico, el energético y el medioambiental cuyo financiamiento depende, en su mayoría, de empresas privadas que han tenido que enfrentar un alto nivel de incertidumbre a lo largo de años de inversión, es necesario desarrollar y mejorar métodos de evaluación de proyectos que permitan tomar decisiones eficientes para invertir o seguir invirtiendo. En el presente trabajo de tesis se desarrolla y se explica un modelo de evaluación de proyectos que usa el método de opciones reales. Al principio el modelo expone de manera genérica, para después continuar con el desarrollo de un modelo más específico a las necesidades de los proyectos biotecnológicos. Esto es, un modelo que considere la existencia de una patente que proteja por un tiempo límite los rendimientos que se esperarían ganar con el desarrollo, la existencia de un elevado nivel de incertidumbre en los costos y los ingresos totales del proyecto y, una alta probabilidad e fracaso debido a eventos catastróficos. Posteriormente, se calibran las variables del modelo propuesto tomando como referencia el caso real de un proyecto biotecnológico. Para este trabajo de tesis, el caso propuesto es el desarrollo de una plataforma de visualización óptica desarrollada en la ciudad de Bogotá. Por último, el trabajo se completa con una serie de reflexiones acerca de las posibilidades (y limitaciones) que existentes para hacer este tipo de calibraciones.

This thesis contributes to the existing literature on personality traits and economic preference parameters by analyzing the stability of some of the main traits and parameters. Specically, I investigate whether (1) they change as individuals age in the cross-section and by individual, and (2) whether they are affected by an individual's personal situation changes. I use data from a large Dutch household panel survey (DHS) that includes measures for two key economic preference parameters: Risk Aversion and Future Orientation. On personality traits, the dataset contains information on the “Big Five”, a set of five general traits (Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism) that are said to capture individual differences in personality, and Economic Locus of Control, a lower-level (i.e. more specic; narrower) trait that measures the extent to which an individual believes economic outcomes are a result of her own actions. My results using pooled cross-section analysis suggest that most preference parameters and personality traits are not stable over time and are changed by many of the events investigated; in particular, there is strong evidence that Big Five Openness is negatively affected by marriage and widowing. Using fixed effects and random effects methodologies on a sub-sample of the data, most of the changes attributed to the events are no longer signifficant but the coefficients of marriage and widowing on Openness remain signifcant of similar size. If personality is modeled as a unit root process and their differences over four years are regressed against event dummies and age group indicators, the effects that are statistically signiffcant reduce to only a few, and the evidence on age instability is also contested. Overall, the evidence suggest that the hypothesis of age stability for most personality traits can be rejected (with the exception of Locus of Control) and only Openness seems to be negatively affected by marriage and widowing.