Positive wake–up–call contagion: New prospects for latin american bonds market after the greek debt crisis = Llamado de atencion a un contagio positivo: Nuevas perspectivas para el mercado de bonos latinoamericanos después de la crisis de deuda griega
Recently, Latin American countries have experienced a series of upgrades in their sovereign credit ratings that are reflecting the region’s appeal for sovereign portfolio managers around the globe. Paradoxically, Latin American economies have shown strong economic fundamentals during the whole last decade and did not experienced any significant local common shock during 2009 - 2012, years in which credit agencies started upgrading the ratings of the region.
Given these facts a valid question that springs up is which circumstances triggered the change in perception over the region’s creditworthiness during the last years. In this document I intend to explore a possible explanation to this change in risk perception, which consists in a positive wake–up-call contagion generated after the 2009 Greek debt crisis.
The thesis will follow the methodology proposed in Giordano, Pericolli and Tomassino (2012), in which an analysis of contagion was conducted exclusively over developed European countries. Estimations show robust evidence of positive wake – up – call contagion towards the Latin American region. This outcome confirms that pricing of Latin American sovereign bonds in international financial markets is finally acknowledging the efforts of Latin American economies in correcting fiscal imbalances, implementing inflation targeting regimes and creating capital buffers to counter the effects of new coming local and international crises.
Fuente:
Biblioteca Virtual Banco de la República
Formatos de contenido:
Tesis