Abstract: The VARX(1) model expressed in Vector Error Correction terms (VEC) is implemented to predict the corn futures price. To test its accuracy and performance, the results are compared to the real price and the projections obtained using an Autoregressive model (AR). The comparison contributes to the debate if multi-variate, multi-equations models outperformed simple Autoregressive models. Since immediate or contemporaneous relationships were found between the explanatory variables and the corn price, a contemporaneous model was developed as a second benchmark to test the VARX(1) model accuracy. As the third benchmark, a similar model found in the literature was used to test the results. One month-ahead, out-of-sample forecasting, is used to project the corn futures price. The results suggest that the VARX (1) outperformed the Autoregressive model, but the lagged effects of the own corn price still presented high explanatory power. The model present similar results when compared to other similar models found in the literature but underperform when compared to the contemporaneous model. Finally, the contemporaneous model developed here present important predictability and practical use for decision making in the agri-food industry.

Abstract: The prediction of polypharmacy side effects is crucial to reduce the mortality and morbidity of patients suffering from complex diseases. However, its experimental prediction is unfeasible due to the many possible drug combinations, leaving in silico tools as the most promising way of addressing this problem. This thesis improves the performance and robustness of a state-of-the-art graph convolutional network designed to predict polypharmacy side effects, by feeding it with complexity properties of the drug-protein network. The modifications also involve the creation of a direct pipeline to reproduce the results and test it with different datasets. Resumen: La predicción de los efectos secundarios en tratamientos con múltiples medicamentos es fundamental para reducir la mortalidad y la morbilidad de los pacientes que padecen enfermedades complejas. Sin embargo, su predicción experimental es inviable debido a las múltiples combinaciones posibles de fármacos, dejando las herramientas computacionales como la forma más prometedora de abordar este problema. Esta tesis mejora el rendimiento y la solidez de una red convolucional en grafos de última generación diseñada para predecir los efectos secundarios estos tratamientos, al alimentarla con propiedades de complejidad de la red fármaco-proteína. Las modificaciones también implican la creación de una canalización directa para reproducir los resultados y probarlos con diferentes conjuntos de datos.

Abstract: The election of right-wing politicians in several Latin American countries in recent years seems to present a break from the left-wing governments previously in power across the subcontinent. However, Colombia is distinct from these trends in that it has consistently been dominated by centre-right or right-wing politics. The absence of political space for left-wing politics in Colombia has allowed different governments to portray protests and protestors as subversive and criminal. Despite the high risks of mobilization, protests have continued to take place, even in periods during which armed conflict has escalated. Since mid-2008, right-wing movements have embraced, supported and used protest as a tactic; undertaking, calling for, and giving political support to different protests across the country. This has had an unexpected consequence: the use of protests by right-wing politicians has “normalized” protests in the country in the eyes of the political right, government institutions, and some sectors within the security and defence forces that now see protests as valid and normal. This article argues that the normalization of protest movements in Colombia has taken place due in part to right-wing and populist politicians’ support of protests. To discuss this, a brief historical analysis of the protests in Colombia since 1948 is presented, with the period from 2002 onwards discussed in greater detail.

Abstract: Objective: To investigate opportunities for task shifting to decongest an outpatient neurology clinic in Zambia by describing current patient flow through the clinic and potential nodes for intervention using process mapping. Background: Zambia has a population of approximately 18 million people with 4 full-time adult neurologists, as of 2018, who all practice at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH), the main tertiary care center in the country. As a result of this provider-to-patient ratio, the outpatient neurology clinic is overcrowded and overbooked. Task-shifting programs have shown to improve efficiency, access and quality of care through the use of less specialized healthcare workers in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: We evaluated patient flow in the UTH neurology outpatient clinic through the development and analysis of a process map. The characteristics of the clinic population between 2014 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed from the clinic register. Between July and August 2018, we prospectively collected appointment lag times and time each patient spent waiting at various points in the clinic process. We conducted interviews with clinic staff and neurologists to generate a detailed process map of current pathways to care within the clinic. We then devised task- shifting strategies to help reduce patient wait times based on the overview of clinic process mapping and patient demographics. Results: From 2014 to 2018, there were 4701 outpatients seen in the neurology clinic. The most common neurologi- cal diagnoses were epilepsy (39.2%), headache (21.5%) and cerebrovascular disease (16.7%). During prospective data collection, patients waited an average of 57.8 (SD 73.4) days to be seen by a neurologist. The average wait time from arrival in the clinic to departure was 4.0 (SD 2.5) h. The process map and interviews with clinic staff revealed long waiting times due to a paucity of providers. Nurses and clerks represent an influential stakeholder group, but are not actively involved in any activity to reduce wait times. A large proportion of follow-up patients were stable and seen solely to obtain medication refills. Conclusions: Epilepsy, headache, and stroke make up the largest percentage of outpatient neurological illness in Zambia. Targeting stable patients in these diagnostic categories for a task-shifting intervention may lead to substan- tially decreased patient wait times. Potential interventions include shifting clinical follow-ups and medication refills to less specialized healthcare workers.

Abstract: In order to re-envision the Royal Melbourne Hospital and the Parkville Medical Precinct, it is begun by drawing key points of interest from the research conducted on hospitals and the healthcare system. The chapter will synthesize the learnings from research conducted on: the ageing population, new medical technologies, hospital logistics, campus types, and healthcare delivery models. From each area of research, it is established the key points of interest and how they may be applied in the field of design medical infrastructure. These points allowed consider the possible design opportunities within the Parkville medical precinct. From this research method, it is able to gain a further understanding of the logistics of a hospital, and what elements can be incorporated into the design of the precinct. Most importantly, by undertaking this exercise, we were able to uncover relationships that were not evident from a top-down site simplified site analysis perspective. Design as a research tool opens a wide range of opportunities for urban design that reaches across many different disciplines and cross them, providing unexpected creative outcomes.

Abstract: Objective: To investigate opportunities for task shifting to decongest an outpatient neurology clinic in Zambia by describing current patient flow through the clinic and potential nodes for intervention using process mapping. Background: Zambia has a population of approximately 18 million people with 4 full-time adult neurologists, as of 2018, who all practice at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH), the main tertiary care center in the country. As a result of this provider-to-patient ratio, the outpatient neurology clinic is overcrowded and overbooked. Task-shifting programs have shown to improve efficiency, access and quality of care through the use of less specialized healthcare workers in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: We evaluated patient flow in the UTH neurology outpatient clinic through the development and analysis of a process map. The characteristics of the clinic population between 2014 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed from the clinic register. Between July and August 2018, we prospectively collected appointment lag times and time each patient spent waiting at various points in the clinic process. We conducted interviews with clinic staff and neurologists to generate a detailed process map of current pathways to care within the clinic. We then devised task- shifting strategies to help reduce patient wait times based on the overview of clinic process mapping and patient demographics. Results: From 2014 to 2018, there were 4701 outpatients seen in the neurology clinic. The most common neurologi- cal diagnoses were epilepsy (39.2%), headache (21.5%) and cerebrovascular disease (16.7%). During prospective data collection, patients waited an average of 57.8 (SD 73.4) days to be seen by a neurologist. The average wait time from arrival in the clinic to departure was 4.0 (SD 2.5) h. The process map and interviews with clinic staff revealed long waiting times due to a paucity of providers. Nurses and clerks represent an influential stakeholder group, but are not actively involved in any activity to reduce wait times. A large proportion of follow-up patients were stable and seen solely to obtain medication refills. Conclusions: Epilepsy, headache, and stroke make up the largest percentage of outpatient neurological illness in Zambia. Targeting stable patients in these diagnostic categories for a task-shifting intervention may lead to substan- tially decreased patient wait times. Potential interventions include shifting clinical follow-ups and medication refills to less specialized healthcare workers.

Abstract: South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. The current levels of inequality are the legacy of the segregation and marginalization of the vast majority of its citizenry in every aspect of South Africa’s socio- economic development before and during apartheid. Contemporary inequality literature is unambiguous about the fact that such extremely high levels of inequality are detrimental to a country’s development path and stifle a country’s potential in multiple dimensions (Wilkinson and Pickett 2010). In South Africa, poverty and inequality are often mentioned in the same breath. This elides over important conceptual differences between poverty (measured by incomes at a particular threshold) and inequality (measured by gaps between groups or individuals). Poverty is analysed as an individualized metric, the income level of a person or the level of a multi- dimensional index relative to an income or multidimensional poverty line (for a fuller discussion on poverty in South Africa see chapter 8 of this volume). On the other hand, inequality is a relational concept; one is more or less equal in relation to another (Tilly 1998). As such the analysis of poverty cannot necessarily explain the forces reproducing intergenerational inequality or poverty. Analysing inequality is better suited to unveiling the societal processes driving the provision and allocation of assets, and services and the determinants of well- being, and can better describe the forces reproducing intra-generational and intergenerational inequality. This is the task of this chapter.

Abstract: The ability of the United States (U.S.) to influence policies in Colombia is indisputable. The U.S. is Colombia’s largest trading partner, and this alone provides the U.S. with great power with regards to Colombian policymaking. U.S. power is not only manifest within the economic realm, though, as Colombia is a consumer of many U.S. cultural products, but U.S. political decisions also greatly inform Colombian policymaking. However, the nature of decisions in the U.S., and their influence, only partially explains policies in Colombia. Domestic policies also remain shaped by the configuration of different actors, agendas, and interests within the country itself. In this chapter, we argue that although there are shifts in the agenda between both countries, we should not understand these changes as only due to the rhetoric and the style brought by the Trump government. The policy changes also relate to internal political processes within Colombia, alongside other external factors.

Abstract: Latin America was in turmoil in 2019. Protests raged across different countries and against governments across the political spectrum. Widespread mobilisation from social organisations denounced corruption and voiced various demands, including greater political freedoms, better and affordable public services, and the urgent need to tackle corruption and inequality in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile and Brazil. The region ended the year with unfulfilled promises of a new social pact, and the promise of intensified mobilisations.

Abstract : In this chapter, I demonstrate that simulation models, and in particular system dynamics models, could be a cheap and efficient way of examining policies that could allow public servants and service providers to learn and evaluate the different scenarios they are facing in delivering transitional justice remedies. In particular, I concentrate on the simulation and resultant evaluation of possible alternatives to be considered in relation to the reparation and restitution of land rights for the victims of forced displacement in Colombia. To this end, this chapter first presents a brief description of the phenomenon of forced displacement in Colombia and its impact on the society as a whole, thus highlighting the nature of the challenge for government institutions in tackling the results of decades-long conflict in the country.