Abstract: The ability of the United States (U.S.) to influence policies in Colombia is indisputable. The U.S. is Colombia’s largest trading partner, and this alone provides the U.S. with great power with regards to Colombian policymaking. U.S. power is not only manifest within the economic realm, though, as Colombia is a consumer of many U.S. cultural products, but U.S. political decisions also greatly inform Colombian policymaking. However, the nature of decisions in the U.S., and their influence, only partially explains policies in Colombia. Domestic policies also remain shaped by the configuration of different actors, agendas, and interests within the country itself. In this chapter, we argue that although there are shifts in the agenda between both countries, we should not understand these changes as only due to the rhetoric and the style brought by the Trump government. The policy changes also relate to internal political processes within Colombia, alongside other external factors.

Abstract: South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. The current levels of inequality are the legacy of the segregation and marginalization of the vast majority of its citizenry in every aspect of South Africa’s socio- economic development before and during apartheid. Contemporary inequality literature is unambiguous about the fact that such extremely high levels of inequality are detrimental to a country’s development path and stifle a country’s potential in multiple dimensions (Wilkinson and Pickett 2010). In South Africa, poverty and inequality are often mentioned in the same breath. This elides over important conceptual differences between poverty (measured by incomes at a particular threshold) and inequality (measured by gaps between groups or individuals). Poverty is analysed as an individualized metric, the income level of a person or the level of a multi- dimensional index relative to an income or multidimensional poverty line (for a fuller discussion on poverty in South Africa see chapter 8 of this volume). On the other hand, inequality is a relational concept; one is more or less equal in relation to another (Tilly 1998). As such the analysis of poverty cannot necessarily explain the forces reproducing intergenerational inequality or poverty. Analysing inequality is better suited to unveiling the societal processes driving the provision and allocation of assets, and services and the determinants of well- being, and can better describe the forces reproducing intra-generational and intergenerational inequality. This is the task of this chapter.

Abstract: Objective: To investigate opportunities for task shifting to decongest an outpatient neurology clinic in Zambia by describing current patient flow through the clinic and potential nodes for intervention using process mapping. Background: Zambia has a population of approximately 18 million people with 4 full-time adult neurologists, as of 2018, who all practice at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH), the main tertiary care center in the country. As a result of this provider-to-patient ratio, the outpatient neurology clinic is overcrowded and overbooked. Task-shifting programs have shown to improve efficiency, access and quality of care through the use of less specialized healthcare workers in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: We evaluated patient flow in the UTH neurology outpatient clinic through the development and analysis of a process map. The characteristics of the clinic population between 2014 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed from the clinic register. Between July and August 2018, we prospectively collected appointment lag times and time each patient spent waiting at various points in the clinic process. We conducted interviews with clinic staff and neurologists to generate a detailed process map of current pathways to care within the clinic. We then devised task- shifting strategies to help reduce patient wait times based on the overview of clinic process mapping and patient demographics. Results: From 2014 to 2018, there were 4701 outpatients seen in the neurology clinic. The most common neurologi- cal diagnoses were epilepsy (39.2%), headache (21.5%) and cerebrovascular disease (16.7%). During prospective data collection, patients waited an average of 57.8 (SD 73.4) days to be seen by a neurologist. The average wait time from arrival in the clinic to departure was 4.0 (SD 2.5) h. The process map and interviews with clinic staff revealed long waiting times due to a paucity of providers. Nurses and clerks represent an influential stakeholder group, but are not actively involved in any activity to reduce wait times. A large proportion of follow-up patients were stable and seen solely to obtain medication refills. Conclusions: Epilepsy, headache, and stroke make up the largest percentage of outpatient neurological illness in Zambia. Targeting stable patients in these diagnostic categories for a task-shifting intervention may lead to substan- tially decreased patient wait times. Potential interventions include shifting clinical follow-ups and medication refills to less specialized healthcare workers.

Abstract: In order to re-envision the Royal Melbourne Hospital and the Parkville Medical Precinct, it is begun by drawing key points of interest from the research conducted on hospitals and the healthcare system. The chapter will synthesize the learnings from research conducted on: the ageing population, new medical technologies, hospital logistics, campus types, and healthcare delivery models. From each area of research, it is established the key points of interest and how they may be applied in the field of design medical infrastructure. These points allowed consider the possible design opportunities within the Parkville medical precinct. From this research method, it is able to gain a further understanding of the logistics of a hospital, and what elements can be incorporated into the design of the precinct. Most importantly, by undertaking this exercise, we were able to uncover relationships that were not evident from a top-down site simplified site analysis perspective. Design as a research tool opens a wide range of opportunities for urban design that reaches across many different disciplines and cross them, providing unexpected creative outcomes.

Abstract: Objective: To investigate opportunities for task shifting to decongest an outpatient neurology clinic in Zambia by describing current patient flow through the clinic and potential nodes for intervention using process mapping. Background: Zambia has a population of approximately 18 million people with 4 full-time adult neurologists, as of 2018, who all practice at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH), the main tertiary care center in the country. As a result of this provider-to-patient ratio, the outpatient neurology clinic is overcrowded and overbooked. Task-shifting programs have shown to improve efficiency, access and quality of care through the use of less specialized healthcare workers in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: We evaluated patient flow in the UTH neurology outpatient clinic through the development and analysis of a process map. The characteristics of the clinic population between 2014 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed from the clinic register. Between July and August 2018, we prospectively collected appointment lag times and time each patient spent waiting at various points in the clinic process. We conducted interviews with clinic staff and neurologists to generate a detailed process map of current pathways to care within the clinic. We then devised task- shifting strategies to help reduce patient wait times based on the overview of clinic process mapping and patient demographics. Results: From 2014 to 2018, there were 4701 outpatients seen in the neurology clinic. The most common neurologi- cal diagnoses were epilepsy (39.2%), headache (21.5%) and cerebrovascular disease (16.7%). During prospective data collection, patients waited an average of 57.8 (SD 73.4) days to be seen by a neurologist. The average wait time from arrival in the clinic to departure was 4.0 (SD 2.5) h. The process map and interviews with clinic staff revealed long waiting times due to a paucity of providers. Nurses and clerks represent an influential stakeholder group, but are not actively involved in any activity to reduce wait times. A large proportion of follow-up patients were stable and seen solely to obtain medication refills. Conclusions: Epilepsy, headache, and stroke make up the largest percentage of outpatient neurological illness in Zambia. Targeting stable patients in these diagnostic categories for a task-shifting intervention may lead to substan- tially decreased patient wait times. Potential interventions include shifting clinical follow-ups and medication refills to less specialized healthcare workers.

Abstract: The election of right-wing politicians in several Latin American countries in recent years seems to present a break from the left-wing governments previously in power across the subcontinent. However, Colombia is distinct from these trends in that it has consistently been dominated by centre-right or right-wing politics. The absence of political space for left-wing politics in Colombia has allowed different governments to portray protests and protestors as subversive and criminal. Despite the high risks of mobilization, protests have continued to take place, even in periods during which armed conflict has escalated. Since mid-2008, right-wing movements have embraced, supported and used protest as a tactic; undertaking, calling for, and giving political support to different protests across the country. This has had an unexpected consequence: the use of protests by right-wing politicians has “normalized” protests in the country in the eyes of the political right, government institutions, and some sectors within the security and defence forces that now see protests as valid and normal. This article argues that the normalization of protest movements in Colombia has taken place due in part to right-wing and populist politicians’ support of protests. To discuss this, a brief historical analysis of the protests in Colombia since 1948 is presented, with the period from 2002 onwards discussed in greater detail.

Abstract: The prediction of polypharmacy side effects is crucial to reduce the mortality and morbidity of patients suffering from complex diseases. However, its experimental prediction is unfeasible due to the many possible drug combinations, leaving in silico tools as the most promising way of addressing this problem. This thesis improves the performance and robustness of a state-of-the-art graph convolutional network designed to predict polypharmacy side effects, by feeding it with complexity properties of the drug-protein network. The modifications also involve the creation of a direct pipeline to reproduce the results and test it with different datasets. Resumen: La predicción de los efectos secundarios en tratamientos con múltiples medicamentos es fundamental para reducir la mortalidad y la morbilidad de los pacientes que padecen enfermedades complejas. Sin embargo, su predicción experimental es inviable debido a las múltiples combinaciones posibles de fármacos, dejando las herramientas computacionales como la forma más prometedora de abordar este problema. Esta tesis mejora el rendimiento y la solidez de una red convolucional en grafos de última generación diseñada para predecir los efectos secundarios estos tratamientos, al alimentarla con propiedades de complejidad de la red fármaco-proteína. Las modificaciones también implican la creación de una canalización directa para reproducir los resultados y probarlos con diferentes conjuntos de datos.

Abstract: The VARX(1) model expressed in Vector Error Correction terms (VEC) is implemented to predict the corn futures price. To test its accuracy and performance, the results are compared to the real price and the projections obtained using an Autoregressive model (AR). The comparison contributes to the debate if multi-variate, multi-equations models outperformed simple Autoregressive models. Since immediate or contemporaneous relationships were found between the explanatory variables and the corn price, a contemporaneous model was developed as a second benchmark to test the VARX(1) model accuracy. As the third benchmark, a similar model found in the literature was used to test the results. One month-ahead, out-of-sample forecasting, is used to project the corn futures price. The results suggest that the VARX (1) outperformed the Autoregressive model, but the lagged effects of the own corn price still presented high explanatory power. The model present similar results when compared to other similar models found in the literature but underperform when compared to the contemporaneous model. Finally, the contemporaneous model developed here present important predictability and practical use for decision making in the agri-food industry.

Abstract: This project presents three-dimensional conceptual and numerical flow models of a gascondensate field in the foothills region of the Eastern Llanos Basin in Colombia. The Eastern Llanos Basin has been the subject of diverse studies for hydrocarbon exploitation. Over the past decade, this region has been assessed for its geothermal potential in currently exploited oil & gas fields. A gas-condensate field located in the foothills of the basin represents a promising opportunity to produce geothermal energy. The conceptual and numerical models integrate geological, geophysical, geochemical and well data to enhance the understanding of the geothermal system in a sedimentary environment. The Leapfrog Geothermal model shows that the gas-condensate field presents a structurally complex architecture, where hydrocarbons and water accumulate in an relatively permeable reservoir. Well data exhibit a constant geothermal gradient, indicating conductive heat transfer. Based on geochemical data and hydrological analyses, it is identified that meteoric recharge occurs in the Andean orogenic belt and fluid flows from NW to SE. TOUGH2 numerical simulations are developed to generate a natural state model and geothermal production scenarios, which give an estimation of water extraction in the field. The thermal and hydraulic parameters were extracted from published experimental and well data. In order to simplify this first geotermal model, and reduce the number of parameters, it is assumed that the field is completely saturated with water. The natural state model temperature field is concordant with measured well data and simulated mass flow direction confirm expected patterns. Production scenarios demonstrate that it is possible to extract water at more than 90 °C without termal breakthrough during the 30 years simulation. Thermal power calculations yield two optimistic scenarios with more than 30 MWth of heat production, and a conservative scenario with approximately 6 MWth. The conservative scenario provides a better approach to reality with current water production. Thus, this project presents the basis for further studies on geothermal development in actively exploited hydrocarbon fields.

Abstract: This thesis addresses the numerical optimization of the design and scheduling of a biomethane plant integrated with a reversible solid oxide cell, amongst other technologies, that allow the processing of biogas coming from OFMSW anaerobic digestion as to maximize profitability on a yearly basis under different circumstances. The optimization model is carried out through a mixed integer linear program as to obtain the adequate sizes of the different technologies that compose the integrated energy plant whilst taking advantage of the energy and material stream interactions to reach optimal financial feasibility. The inclusion of a reversible oxide fuel cell allows the system to work in different modes as in Power-to-gas and Gas-to-power, generating interest on to the different services that the system can provide to the gas and electricity grids and most importantly to a future decarbonized energy scenario. Furthermore, inclusion of linear models for an amine scrubbing section for biomethane upgrading, a photovoltaic solar field, gas and heat storage units, a battery energy storage system and a biogas boiler into the MILP is carried out as they are part of the technologies in study for the integrated energy plant. The seasonal variability for gas and electricity prices, part load performances, size effects, weather related data, and technological modelling of components are all part of the challenges to be tackled as to obtain a MILP able to compute accurate, adequate and optimal solutions for the design and scheduling problem whilst subjected to technological, environmental and operational constraints. Resumen: Esta tesis se centra en la optimización numérica del diseño y operación de una planta de biometano integrada con una celda de hidrogeno reversible, entre otras tecnologías, que permiten el procesamiento de biogás proveniente de la digestión anaeróbica de material orgánico con el objetivo de maximizar las ganancias en temporalidad anual ante diferentes circunstancias. El modelo de optimización se lleva a cabo con un algoritmo de programación lineal de entornos mixtos para obtener los tamaños de diseño adecuados de las diferentes tecnologías que componen a la planta integrada de energía mientras se toma ventaja de las interacciones entre cada flujo de energía y/o materia para obtener la mas óptima viabilidad económica. La inclusión de una celda reversible de hidrógeno permite al sistema trabajar en diferentes modos como electricidad a gas o gas a electricidad, generando interés en los distintos servicios que el sistema puede proveer a las redes de gas y electricidad y aun más importante a un futuro escenario mundial de energético descarbonizado. Mas aún, la inclusión de modelos lineales como un sistema de mejora de la calidad del biometano mediante absorción con aminas, un campo de energía solar fotovoltaica, unidades de almacenamiento de gas y calor, un sistema de almacenamiento de energías mediante baterías y una caldera de biogás en el modelo de programación lineal es llevado a cabo pues son parte de las tecnologías en estudio para la planta energética integrada. La variación estacional por los precios de gas y electricidad, desempeño a cargas parciales, efectos de tamaños, data ambiental, y el modelado tecnológico de los componentes son parte de los retos a ser resueltos para poder obtener un MILP capaz de computar precisas, adecuadas y optimas soluciones para el problema de diseño y operación mientras se encuentra sujeto a restricciones tecnológicas, ambientales y operacionales.