Despite the large amount of research on aid effectiveness, there is still no consensus about the impact of international aid on economic growth, especially of the World Bank assistance. Empirical studies are characterised to be limited on its methodology and present diverse conclusions. Moreover, the World Bank’s contribution to economic growth in developing countries has been questioned to the point to rethink its role as a source for development. Colombia is not external to these contradictions; however, this situation arises from perception surveys and national figures. This research evaluates the impact of the World Bank’s lending on Colombia’s economic growth by estimating a model using as a reference the Solow’s model, extended to include a World Bank lending variable. It is expected a positive relationship between the World Bank disbursements and Colombia’s economic growth, which highlights the importance of updating the borrowing strategy with the World Bank in order to take the best advantage of this multilateral finance source.

Mean sea level rise exposes coasts to increasing risks. For the Caribbean Sea, the regional and local sea-level behaviour is not well known. This study has investigated the sea level behavior in the region at different frequencies during the last century, to provide updated, accurate and useful information to implement coastal adaptation responses to sea-level hazards. Time series from 28 tide-gauges, 18 years of altimetry and various atmospheric and oceanographic climatologies have been used. Several new results have been found. The small Caribbean tides have significant long-term modulations. The net effect of the low frequency modulation of the tidal signal can change the maximum tidal range up to 23.5%. The seasonal sea level cycle is characterized by large spatial and temporal variability. The amplitude of the coastal annual harmonic ranges from 2 cm to 9 cm, peaking between August and October. The amplitude of the semi-annual harmonic has maximum amplitude of 6 cm but it is not significant at all stations. The barometric effect dominates the coastal semi-annual cycle, but it is insignificant in all the other sea level frequencies at the tide-gauges. The seasonal sea level cycle from altimetry confirms the results obtained from the tide-gauges and allows the identification of some dominant sea level forcing parameters such as the Panama-Colombia gyre driven by the wind stress curl and the Caribbean Low Level Jet modulating the sea level in the northern coast of South America and linked to the local upwelling. The basin average mean sea level rise from altimetry is 1.7±1.3 mm yr-1 for the period 1993-2010. Wind forcing changes causes the trends in the southern part of the basin, modulating the sea level through changes in the ocean circulation. Significant spatial and decadal variability of the trends is found. Secular coastal sea-level trends range from 1.3±0.2 mm yr-1 in Magueyes, where the steric contribution dominates, to 5.3±0.3 mm yr-1 in Cartagena, where other contributors including local vertical land movements are significant. Temporal changes in the sea level extremes are significant but in line with mean sea-level trends at each tide gauge. With the annual mean sea level removed, extremes range between 36 cm and 79 cm, the later recorded in Port Spain and caused by the largest tidal signal. The largest nontidal residual is 76 cm found in Magueyes, forced by a hurricane induced storm surge, however larger surges can occur in the basin. The interannual sea level signal and nontidal extremes correlate with El Niño-Southern Oscillation at different time and spatial scales. No correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation is found at any frequency. The largest sea flooding probability in the Caribbean coasts is around October, when the different sea level contributors’ maximums interact. These sea flooding events are going to became more frequent in the future due to the secular mean sea level rise affecting the basin.

The growing problem of maintaining socio-economic sustainability in a changing climate has focused attention of a wide range of stakeholders on devising and delivering adaptive responses. A series of IPCC reports have emphasised that the economies of developing countries and particularly the poor would bear the brunt of climate change impacts. Farmers are highly vulnerable because of their high and direct dependency on natural resources, climate-sensitive livelihoods and lack of access to resources that they could rely on to respond successfully to shocks. Microfinance has become an increasingly used and effective tool to respond to major global challenges at the local level, including poverty and climate change. This thesis seeks to analyze the effects that the level of climate change risk and impact has on the willingness of Colombian farmers to invest, through microfinances, in strategies to adapt anticipatively to climate change. The methodology combines experimental economic games, surveys and interviews with farmers who cultivate three different crops: coffee, cocoa and citrus. The findings demonstrate that adaptation decisions depend on climate variability, the cost to implement an adaptation strategy and its benefits to cope with current hazards. Some farmers are risk takers as they prefer to face the risk of losing the harvest rather than pay the adaptation costs. Integrated pest management and beekeeping were strategies preferred under any level of climate variability, while farmers invested in crop diversification and solar dehydrators when facing higher risk of climate change. They were willing to obtain individual and associative microcredits. Microcredits awarded to small farmers in a short period of time enable them to accumulate and manage assets that make them less vulnerable. Microfinance can be more effective when combined with training and bottom-up strategies such as social networks, establishment of partnerships, collective lands and social learning that help farmers to increase their earnings, improve land productivity and promote food security.

The Passivhaus Standard is a construction concept based on affordably achieving the best indoor conditions with the lowest energy demand. If adopted, it could contribute to fulfil the lack of regulations in energy and comfort performance in Colombian dwellings that the current sustainability laws mandate. The Standard has been applied in warm regions mostly throughout the Mediterranean.This work intended to study its applicability for social housing in tropical climates, specifically four Colombian cities with different average energy demands and number of occupants per household and diverse climatic conditions. The work identified and described a reference building based on an average ‘good practice’ social housing project product of the current Building Regulations. It was modelled in the Passivhaus Planning Package (PHPP) to analyse its performance in the four cities. The results showed that the thermal performance of the building envelope is better than expected due to favourable climatic conditions in most of the cities, although it needs improvements. Even if primary energy demand is lower in the four cities than the maximum allowed by the Standard, it would be considerably high for dwellings without mechanical heating or cooling. The improved models showed that adopting passive strategies according to local climates reduced daily temperature swings and increased indoor comfort. Applying energy efficiency measures such as solar thermal DHW and more efficient fridges and lighting decreased primary energy demand significantly to less than a half of the maximum allowed. The Standard would be applicable in tropical climates even within the budget limitations for social housing in Colombia, although not exactly in the same way as in central Europe. Local circumstances and passive strategies must be taken into account to feasibly achieve the Passivhaus Standard in Colombian social housing.

Youth suicidality is a worldwide major concern; even more, if a specific population of youth, as young people in the child welfare system, are likely to be at higher risk. Therefore, emerge the need to identify particular characteristics that may be predictors of these suicidal behaviors in order to provide better prevention and intervention programs. Portugal is a country that does not have information regarding youth suicide in care. Seeking to contribute to this matter this study aims to make a profile of young Portuguese people (of 16- and 17- years old) in residential care with suicide attempts, identifying the relation between suicidality and sociodemographic variables, type of placement and maltreatment, mental health problems and risk behaviors. Comparisons of the data gathered were made on adolescents in residential care with suicide attempts and adolescents without it, bivariate analyzes were carried out to identify the difference between samples. Results supported a statistical relationship with physical neglect as a type of maltreatment, and alcohol and drugs abuse as factors that may increase the risk of suicide attempts. Regarding mental health, treatments do not cover the whole population with suicide attempts, with lightly less of half of the adolescents with suicidality not receiving psychiatric treatment. Further analysis is needed to identify if more rigorous mental health treatment might reduce suicidality. Resúmen: La tendencia suicida en los jóvenes es una preocupación importante a nivel mundial; aún más, si una población específica, como aquellos quienes están en el sistema de bienestar, tienen probabilidades de tener riesgos mayores. Por esta razón, surge la necesidad de identificar características particulares de los jóvenes en el sistema de bienestar que puedan predecir comportamientos suicidas con el fin de proporcionar mejores programas de prevención e intervención. Portugal es un país que no tiene información sobre el suicidio juvenil en el sistema de bienestar. Buscando contribuir a esta área, el siguiente estudio pretende hacer un perfil de jóvenes portugueses (de 16 y 17 años) en acogimiento residencial con intentos de suicidio, identificando la relación entre la variable tendencias suicidas y variables sociodemográficas, perfil del acogimiento y tipo de maltrato, problemas de salud mental y comportamientos de riesgo. Se compararon los datos de adolescentes en acogimiento residenciales con intentos de suicidio y adolescentes sin intentos, llevando a cabo análisis bivariados para identificar la diferencia entre las muestras. Los resultados revelaron una relación estadística entre negligencia física como un tipo de maltrato, y abuso de alcohol y drogas como factores que pueden aumentar el riesgo de intentos suicidas. En cuanto a la salud mental, se identificó que los tratamientos no cubren a todos los jóvenes con intentos de suicidio, hallando que no reciben tratamiento psiquiátrico un poco menos de la mitad de los adolescentes con tendencias suicidas. Por esta razón, se considera necesario realizar más análisis para identificar si un tratamiento de salud mental más riguroso podría reducir las tendencias suicidas.

In the last years Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) has received an increasing attention in academic research due to its ability to achieve optimal process operation of nonlinear processes. NMPC has been applied to several pilot plants; however major obstacles like plant model mismatch and disturbances have to be overcome in order to allow industrial applications. Multi-stage NMPC (MSNMPC) is a robust NMPC approach which achieves optimal process operation under uncertainties of the process model. A complete workflow from simulation studies to real application of MSNMPC has been developed to overcome the mentioned obstacles. However, explicit knowledge from the fields of mathematics, optimization theory, and process control is required. Therefore, efficient methods for evaluation of MSNMPC that support the transition from simulation to application in the real process are required. In this master thesis a module that applies several evaluation methods to offline simulations of MSNMPC is developed. The effectiveness of the module is shown in the case study of an industrial batch polymerization reactor.

This investigation explores the dynamic relation between transaction activity and price appreciation in an effort to determine if the UK property market displays a return chasing behaviour or a price pressure effect. Using quarterly data from 2001 to 2013, this article explores a topic that has limited coverage for the private property market and it’s considered a relatively unexplored field among researchers. The dynamic is tested at an aggregate level, by property type and by type of investor. Using a bivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, this investigation uses two measures of transaction activity (flows and purchases) to test for the relation between these and returns. Results show that at an aggregate UK level, there is evidence of return chasing behaviour. This implies that returns are predictive of future flows. The result is consistent for the industrial, retail, and office property types for at least one measure of transaction activity. By type of investor, results show that there is a price pressure effect for overseas investors, and a return chasing behaviour for institutional investors, quoted property companies, private property companies, and occupiers. No evidence of any interaction was found for private individuals and financial institutions. Moreover, lagged returns were found to be economic and statistically significant in explaining subsequent returns, reinforcing the appraisal bias property data has.

Today we live in a globalized world. In this interconnected world, the competition for wealth among states has become a synonym for market share. To ensure access to international markets, governments have resorted to the corporate marketing tool of branding. Country branding, as it is called, creates a series of narratives using a country’s identity. Such narratives encompass a symbolic system which is molded for the unique purpose of creating and promoting a positive image of the country branded. However, to be successful, this tool requires nationals to behave as ambassadors and embody the narratives presented. Thus, the brand indirectly defines the features that a ‘true national’ must have. It is argued that by placing nationals in a position where their membership in the community of the nation is evaluated, country branding can become an alternative method for countering the rhetoric used by terrorist and insurgents for achieving support. The analysis is conducted using constructivism as theoretical background, and the Colombian brand ‘Colombia es Pasión’ as study case. The conclusion achieved is that there are some theoretical and empirical elements that suggest that country branding could be used for counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency, yet further research is encouraged.

This paper looks at the impact of railroads on Bogota, Colombia, between 1880 and 1920. I use the journals of foreign travellers that visited the city at different moments during those 40 years to document the economic transformation that the city underwent, and to relate that transformation to the completion of a railroad network that linked the city to its hinterland and to the international markets. The main conclusion is that the railroads transformed the city economically and socially by allowing its residents to import large and heavy capital goods, thereby making modern industries possible. The railroads also had a role in the city’s physical expansion and in the development of its public transportation system.

Energy Union (En Un) is a program released by the European Commission intended to create a single energy market between the European Union in order to have secure, affordable and sustainable energy. This way the imports will be reduced and the final price should be lower (theoretically) increasing the energy security for all the countries. The first communication was in February 2015 and is a very new topic for all the energy stakeholders in the EU. This is why a dissertation for the implications of this policy in UK was developed as part of the Master in Energy, Environmental Technology & Technology from City University London. UK is currently catalogued as an Energy Island (less than 10% of cross-border interconnection), with 30% of the generation based in coal, 30% in gas and 20% renewable, a liberalised market that varies with changes in gas or wind availability and the third highest kWh price from the EU. More than 20 energy policies and Conservative government with a constraint view against renewables’ subsidies. The implication for the UK and the En Un are divided into three: Infrastructural, Political and Economical. In the middle a map of the new cross-border grids proposed by this policy some of the findings are. The Energy Union in the UK will happen even if there’s no political wiliness or if they decide to not be part of the EU, mainly because the new infrastructure is already being developed (UK-Belgium) additional to the four current cross-border interconnectors. The wholesale market in UK is already liberalized and some cross border trades are being done with clean and cheap electricity from France and Holland; the key development is UK-Ireland, because UK, instead of being a 100% exporter to Ireland, will flip the coin with an import-export relationship with 8 interconnectors, electricity generated in Euros and close distance. Now it will not really matter if you generate electricity from Fossil Fuels, Nuclear or Renewable; the country will purchase from where is cheapest and available, independently from the source. Shale Gas, Nuclear, Gas and coal with CCS will be the important investment in the next years, not only in PPP (private public partnership) schemes but with R&D. New Universities courses will be develop (energy traders / brokers, cross border trade supervisors, etc) and more women should get involved. The £/ kWh for domestic and small companies will not be significantly reduced (albeit the low cost of it), those companies more engaged with the market will have very good deals and low £/ kWh.