Por:
Andres Felipe Palacio Llinas
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Fecha:
2015
Given the large drop in the US monetary policy interest rate during the past decade, a significative spillover effect was reflected over Colombia as it had to lower its own policy rate considerably to avoid a further currency appreciation. Its impact on the real exchange rate misalignment is assessed using a Vector Error Correction Model with fundamentals such as the real interest rates differential, net foreign assets, terms of trade, the Balassa Samuelson effect, which reflects the productivity growth differential and the government expenditure employing quarterly data.In order to contrast the importance of this effect two periods were analyzed, one from 1996q1 to 2005q4 and another from 2006q1 to 2014q4. Results show that although the impact of the real interest rate differential does not have a large contribution to the determination of the real exchange rate it has changed its effect sign and now seems to explain a larger proportion of the forecast error variance in longer horizons. Other fundamentals, such as the net foreign assets, the terms of trade and the Balassa Samuelson effect are found to be key determinants for the long run equilibrium.
